ISE review

Istanbul Stock Exchange

Volume: 7 No: 25-26 January/June 2003

Subjects

· Banks, Stock Market and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis Case of Turkey (1989-2000)
Hakan Çetintaş & Salih Barışık

· An Analysis on the Dividend Policy of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Corporations: Cash Dividend-Industry Behavior Relation
Mustafa Kemal Yılmaz

· Capital Structure of the Turkish Domestic and International Real Sector Firms
Halit Gönenç & Özgür Arslan

· Forecasting the Direction of the ISE National-100 Index By Neural Networks Backpropagation Algorithm
Ali İhsan Diler

· Banking Efficiency During the Financial Crisis Period
Adnan Kasman

· Global Capital Markets

· ISE Market Indicators

· Book Reviews

· ISE Publication List

Banks, Stock Market And Economic Growth: Cointegration And Causality Analysis Case Of Turkey (1989-2000)

Yrd. Doç Dr. Hakan ÇETİNTAŞ
Yrd. Doç Dr. Salih BARIŞIK

Abstract
This paper examines the causality relationships between banking sector development, stock market development and economic growth in Turkey by using cointegration and causality tests. Evidences confirm the presence of long-term positive relationship between financial development and economic growth. Both banking sector development, stock market development are the statistically meaningful Granger causes of the economic growth.

An Analysis On The Dividend Policy Of The Istanbul Stock Exchange (Ise) Corporations: Cash Dividend–Industry Behavior Relation

Mustafa Kemal YILMAZ

Abstract
Dividend policy behavior of corporations operating in emerging markets is significantly different from the widely accepted dividend policy behavior of corporations operating in developed markets. There has been much discussion in dividend policy, industry ranking by dividend among academicians. This study examines the effect of cash dividends on stock market by covering the difference between cash and net cash dividend (cash dividend - rights offerings) and the differentiation of industry ranking for one of the leading emerging markets, the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), for the period between 1990-2002 for industry ranking with a free distribution right for cash dividends after 1995. Our results are consistent with those of many other studies. Industry ranking by cash dividend ratio neither change dramatically nor show a stable trend over years, but is considerably affected from economic changes. The most affected industry from the economical changes is the financial institutions with banks taking place in the first rank. Interestingly, net cash dividend ratio shows a downward sloping trend following the rights offerings after the year 1995. Thus, it can be concluded that cash dividends affect industry ranking moderately and this evidence challenges the significant impact of cash dividends on the stock market, which cause much discussion on the effectiveness of cash dividends in the financial markets.

Capital Structure Of The Turkish Domestic And International Real Sector Firms

Halit GÖNENÇ
Özgür ARSLAN

Abstract
This study compares the capital structures of the international and domestic real sector firms listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). According to the results of the univariate analysis that are created by evaluating the periods 1995–1999 and 2000–2001, separately, the most striking feature of the international firms is that their short term borrowing is higher than that of the domestic firms for both periods. It is also noticed that the two groups that are alike in the various financial features have different concentrated ownership structure which is gauged by the percentage of shares held by the three largest shareholders and international firms own a higher concentrated ownership. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that international firms have different capital structure than domestic firms do even after controlling the factors, which are risk, profitability, size, fixed assets, potential growth, concentrated ownership, being connected to business groups and having a bank as a shareholder.

Forecasting The Direction Of Ise National-100 Index By Neural Networks Backpropagation Algorithm

Ali İhsan DİLER

Abstract
The aim of this article is to start a discussion on application of neural network algorithms, which is widely used in world financial literature in the last decade, in the Turkish capital markets. In this article, the direction of the ISE National-100 Index is tried to be forecasted for the next day. A backpropagation with momentum algorithm which is usually used in this sort of financial analysis is used. According to the application results, the direction of the ISE National-100 index forecast for the next day is found to be 60,81 %.

Banking Efficiency During The Financial Crisis Period

Adnan KASMAN

Abstract
This paper examines the performance of banks in the Turkish banking system over the period 2001-2002. The goal of the analysis is to quantify the impact of restructuring program on the banking efficiency. Using the stochastic frontier approach, efficiency scores were estimated for each bank in the sample. The results indicate that the mean cost efficiency improved significantly between 2001 and 2002. The results also indicate that private banks are the most cost efficient in 2002. There is evidence that large banks operate more cost efficiently and furthermore, there is a substantial difference in scale economies between small and large banks. Large banks show significant diseconomies of scale while small ones show significant scale economies.